Monday, October 18, 2010

PE ratio

Pe=price earning ratio.
ata dia actually bujhano hoi Pay Back Period.
Apni kono share a invest korle koto years ar moddhe apnar muldhon fire paben ata mean kore.

Net Asset Value

A fund's NAV fluctuates along with the value of its underlying investments. The formula for NAV is:

NAV = (Market Value of All Securities Held by Fund + Cash and Equivalent Holdings - Fund Liabilities) / Total Fund Shares Outstanding

Let's assume at the close of trading yesterday that a particular mutual fund held $10,500,000 worth of securities, $2,000,000 of cash, and $500,000 of liabilities. If the fund had 1,000,000 shares outstanding, then yesterday's NAV would be:

NAV = ($10,500,000 + $2,000,000 - $500,000) / 1,000,000 = $12.00

A fund's NAV will change daily as the value of a fund's securities, cash held, liabilities, and the number of shares outstanding fluctuate.

Saturday, October 16, 2010

How to calculate Projected Earning Growth (PEG):

It differs for every bank.. the rate of growth is not constant for any sector....... Let me give you an example :

How to calculate Projected Earning Growth (PEG):
if Bank X has last half yearly EPS of Tk. 20 and you are projecting this years half yearly of Tk. 30 then.. projected growth rate will 30-20 = 10 [out of last years 20] i.e. 50%... suppose that banks X's current PE ratio is 12.

Now we want to calculate the PEG
PEG = PE ration of Bank X / growth
= 12 / 50
= 0.24


So, here Bank X's PEG = 0.24

You can calculate Projected Earning Growth for Q1 to Q1, Half year to half year, yearly to yearly.

Best way is to calculate the Yearly to yearly EPS Growth

More than 1.25 = Overvalued

0.51 to 1.25 = Richly Valued

0.26 to 0.50 = Fairly Valued

Less than 0.25 = Undervalued

MACD AND STOCHASTIC DOUBLE CROSS System

Stochastic.

Let me start by saying that there are 3 different types of stochastic oscillators: the fast, slow, and full stochastic. All of them operate in a similar manner however when most traders refer to trading using the stochastic indicator they are referring to the slow stochastic which is going to be the focus of this lesson.

The basic premise of the stochastic is that prices tend to close in the upper end of their trading range when the financial instrument you are analyzing is in an uptrend and in the lower end of their trading range when the financial instrument that you are analyzing is in a downtrend. When prices close in the upper end of their range in an uptrend this is a sign that the momentum of the trend is strong and vice versa for a downtrend.

ALSO known as oversold (below 20) and Overbought line (above 80)

stochastic image

  • Common triggers occur when the %K line drops below 20 - the stock is considered oversold, and it is a buying signal.
  • Generally, if the %K value rises above the %D, then a buy signal is indicated by this crossover, provided the values are under 80. If they are above this value, the security is considered overbought.

stochastic bullish crossoverMACD Calculation
To bring in this oscillating indicator that fluctuates above and below zero, a simple MACD calculation is required. By subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of a security’s price from a 12-day moving average of its price, an oscillating indicator value comes into play. Once a trigger line (the nine-day EMA) is added, the comparison of the two creates a trading picture. If the MACD value is higher than the nine-day EMA, then it is considered a bullish moving average crossover.

It’s helpful to note that there are a few well-known ways to use the MACD:

  • Foremost is the watching for divergences or a crossover of the center line of the histogram; the MACD illustrates buy opportunities above zero and sell opportunities below.
  • Another is noting the moving average line crossovers and their relationship to the center line. (For more, see Trading The MACD Divergence.)

SO now we know

What is stochastic Bulish cross over

What is macd Buliish crossover

Now we will combine both to get accurate buy signals that will make us lot of money over long time
Identifying and Integrating Bullish Crossovers
To be able to establish how to integrate a bullish MACD crossover and a bullish stochastic crossover into a trend-confirmation strategy, the word “bullish” needs to be explained. In the simplest of terms, “bullish” refers to a strong signal for continuously rising prices. A bullish signal is what happens when a faster moving average crosses up over a slower moving average, creating market momentum and suggesting further price increases.

  • In the case of a bullish MACD, this will occur when the histogram value is above the equilibrium line, and also when the MACD line is of a greater value than the nine-day EMA, also called the “MACD signal line.”
  • The stochastic’s bullish divergence occurs when %K value passes the %D, confirming a likely price turnaround.

Crossovers In Action: Genesee & Wyoming Inc. (NYSE:GWR)
Below is an example of how and when to use a stochastic and MACD double cross.

Figure 1

Source: StockCharts.com

Note the green lines that show when these two indicators moved in sync and the near-perfect cross shown at the right-hand side of the chart.

So we will buy only when stochastic has a bullish crossover at the same time macd has a bullish crossover below zero line..

This will ensure in the midterm or long term the stock will do good and give us much gain

Williams %R

Williams %R

Introduction

Developed by Larry Williams, Williams %R is a momentum indicator that works much like the Stochastic Oscillator. It is especially popular for measuring overbought and oversold levels. The scale ranges from 0 to -100 with readings from 0 to -20 considered overbought, and readings from -80 to -100 considered oversold.

William %R, sometimes referred to as %R, shows the relationship of the close relative to the high-low range over a set period of time. The nearer the close is to the top of the range, the nearer to zero (higher) the indicator will be. The nearer the close is to the bottom of the range, the nearer to -100 (lower) the indicator will be. If the close equals the high of the high-low range, then the indicator will show 0 (the highest reading). If the close equals the low of the high-low range, then the result will be -100 (the lowest reading).

Calculation

%R = [(highest high over ? periods - close)/(highest high over ? periods - lowest low over ? periods)] * -100

Typically, Williams %R is calculated using 14 periods and can be used on intraday, daily, weekly or monthly data. The time frame and number of periods will likely vary according to desired sensitivity and the characteristics of the individual security.

Use

It is important to remember that overbought does not necessarily imply time to sell and oversold does not necessarily imply time to buy. A security can be in a downtrend, become oversold and remain oversold as the price continues to trend lower. Once a security becomes overbought or oversold, traders should wait for a signal that a price reversal has occurred. One method might be to wait for Williams %R to cross above or below -50 for confirmation. Price reversal confirmation can also be accomplished by using other indicators or aspects of technical analysis in conjunction with Williams %R.

One method of using Williams %R might be to identify the underlying trend and then look for trading opportunities in the direction of the trend. In an uptrend, traders may look to oversold readings to establish long positions. In a downtrend, traders may look to overbought readings to establish short positions.

Example

Weyerhauser Co. (WY) Williams %R example chart from StockCharts.com

The chart of Weyerhaeuser with a 14-day and 28-day Williams %R illustrates some key points:

  • 14-day %R appears quite choppy and prone to false signals.
  • 28-day %R smoothed the data series and the signals became less frequent and more reliable.
  • When the 28-day %R moved to overbought or oversold levels, it typically remained there for an extended period and the stock continued its trend.
  • Some good entry signals were given with the 28-day %R by waiting for a move above or below -50 for confirmation.

Williams %R and SharpCharts

SharpCharts application Williams %R example image from StockCharts.com

With the SharpCharts charting tool, the Williams %R can be added in the Indicators section. The Parameters box value specifies the number of periods used. The default number of periods is 14.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Introduction

Developed J. Welles Wilder, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Traditionally, and according to Wilder, RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. Signals can also be generated by looking for divergences, failure swings and centerline crossovers. RSI can also be used to identify the general trend.

RSI is an extremely popular momentum indicator that has been featured in a number of articles, interviews and books over the years. In particular, Constance Brown's book, Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional, features the concept of bull market and bear market ranges for RSI. Andrew Cardwell, Brown's RSI mentor, introduced positive and negative reversals for RSI. In addition, Cardwell turned the notion of divergence, literally and figuratively, on its head.

Wilder features RSI in his 1978 book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. This book also includes the Parabolic SAR, Average True Range and the Directional Movement Concept (ADX). Despite being developed before the computer age, Wilder's indicators have stood the test of time and remain extremely popular.

Calculation

                  100
RSI = 100 - --------
1 + RS

RS = Average Gain / Average Loss

To simplify the calculation explanation, RSI has been broken down into its basic components: RS, Average Gain and Average Loss. This RSI calculation is based on 14 periods, which is the default suggested by Wilder in his book. Losses are expressed as positive values, not negative values.

The very first calculations for average gain and average loss are simple 14 period averages.

  • First Average Gain = Sum of Gains over the past 14 periods / 14.
  • First Average Loss = Sum of Losses over the past 14 periods / 14

The second, and subsequent, calculations are based on the prior averages and the current gain loss:

  • Average Gain = [(previous Average Gain) x 13 + current Gain] / 14.
  • Average Loss = [(previous Average Loss) x 13 + current Loss] / 14.

Taking the prior value plus the current value is a smoothing technique similar to that used in exponential moving average calculation. This also means that RSI values become more accurate as the calculation period extends. SharpCharts uses at least 250 data points prior to the starting date of any chart (assuming that much data exists) when calculating its RSI values. To exactly replicate our RSI numbers, a formula will need at least 250 data points.

Wilder's formula normalizes RS and turns it into an oscillator that fluctuates between zero and 100. In fact, a plot of RS looks exactly the same as a plot of RSI. The normalization step makes it easier to identify extremes because RSI is range bound. RSI is 0 when the Average Gain equals zero. Assuming a 14-period RSI, a zero RSI value means prices moved lower all 14 periods. There were no gains to measure. RSI is 100 when the Average Loss equals zero. This means prices moved higher all 14 periods. There were no losses to measure.

Chart 1 - RSI RS Plots

Chart 2 - RSI Spreadsheet

Here's an Excel Spreadsheet that shows the start of an RSI calculation in action.

Note: The smoothing process affects RSI values. RS values are smoothed after the first calculation. Average Loss equals the sum of the losses divided by 14 for the first calculation. Subsequent calculations multiply the prior value by 13, add the most recent value and then divide the total by 14. This creates a smoothing affect. The same applies to Average Gain. Because of this smoothing, RSI values may differ based on the total calculation period. 250 periods will allow for more smoothing than 30 periods and this will slightly affect RSI values. Stockcharts.com goes back 250-days when possible. If Average Loss equals zero, a "divide by zero" situation occurs for RS and RSI is set to 100 by definition. Similarly, RSI equals 0 when Average Gain equals zero.

Parameters

The default look-back period for RSI is 14, but this can be lowered to increase sensitivity or raised to decrease sensitivity. 10-day RSI is more likely to reach overbought or oversold levels than 20-day RSI. The look-back parameters also depend on a security's volatility. 14-day RSI for internet retailer Amazon (AMZN) is more likely to become overbought or oversold than 14-day RSI for Duke Energy (DUK), a utility.

RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. These traditional levels can also be adjusted to better fit the security or analytical requirements. Raising overbought to 80 or lowering oversold to 20 will reduce the number of overbought/oversold readings. Short-term traders sometimes use 2-period RSI to look for overbought readings above 80 and oversold readings below 20.

Overbought-Oversold

Wilder considered RSI overbought above 70 and oversold below 30. Chart 3 shows McDonalds with 14-day RSI. This chart features daily bars in gray with a 1-day SMA in pink to highlight closing prices because RSI is based on closing prices. Working from left to right, the stock became oversold in late July and found support around 44 (1). Notice that the bottom evolved after the oversold reading. The stock did not bottom as soon as the oversold reading appeared. Bottoming can be a process. From oversold levels, RSI moved above 70 in mid September to become overbought. Despite this overbought reading, the stock did not decline. Instead, the stock stalled for a couple weeks and then continued higher. Three more overbought readings occurred before the stock finally peaked in December (2). Momentum oscillators can become overbought (oversold) and remain so in a strong up (down) trend. The first three overbought readings foreshadowed consolidations. The fourth coincided with a significant peak. RSI then moved from overbought to oversold in January. The final bottom did not coincide with the initial oversold reading as the stock ultimately bottomed a few weeks later around 46 (3).

Chart 3 - RSI Overbought Oversold

Like many momentum oscillators, overbought and oversold readings for RSI work best when prices move sideways within a range. Chart 4 shows MEMC Electronics (WFR) trading between 13.5 and 21 from April to September 2009. The stock peaked soon after RSI reached 70 and bottomed soon after the stock reached 30.

Chart 4 - RSI Overbought Oversold

Divergences

According to Wilder, divergences signal a potential reversal point because directional momentum does not confirm price. A bullish divergence occurs when the underlying security makes a lower low and RSI forms a higher low. RSI does not confirm the lower low and this shows strengthening momentum. A bearish divergence forms when the security records a higher high and RSI forms a lower high. RSI does not confirm the new high and this shows weakening momentum. Chart 5 shows Ebay (EBAY) with a bearish divergence in August-October. The stock moved to new highs in September-October, but RSI formed lower highs for the bearish divergence. The subsequent breakdown in mid October confirmed weakening momentum.

Chart 5 - RSI Divergences

A bullish divergence formed in January-March. The bullish divergence formed with Ebay moving to new lows in March and RSI holding above its prior low. RSI reflected less downside momentum during the February-March decline. The mid March breakout confirmed improving momentum. Divergences tend to be more robust when they form after an overbought or oversold reading.

Before getting too excited about divergences as great trading signals, it must be noted that divergences are misleading in a strong trend. A strong uptrend can show numerous bearish divergences before a top actually materializes. Conversely, bullish divergences can appear in a strong downtrend - and yet the downtrend continues. Chart 6 shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with three bearish divergences and a continuing uptrend. These bearish divergences may have warned of a short-term pullback, but there was clearly no major trend reversal.

Chart 6 - RSI Divergences

Failure Swings

Wilder also considered failure swings as strong indications of an impending reversal. Failure swings are independent of price action. In other words, failure swings focus solely on RSI for signals and ignore the concept of divergences. A bullish failure swing forms when RSI moves below 30 (oversold), bounces above 30, pulls back, holds above 30 and then breaks its prior high. It is basically a move to oversold levels and then a higher low above oversold levels. Chart 7 shows Research in Motion (RIMM) with 10-day RSI forming a bullish failure swing.

Chart 7 - RSI Failure Swing

A bearish failure swing forms when RSI moves above 70, pulls back, bounces, fails to exceed 70 and then breaks its prior low. It is basically a move to overbought levels and then a lower high below overbought levels. Chart 8 shows Texas Instruments (TXN) with a bearish failure swing in May-June 2008.

Chart 8 - RSI Failure Swing

Trend ID

In Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional, Constance Brown suggests that oscillators do not travel between 0 and 100. This also happens to be the name of the first chapter. Brown identifies a bull market range and a bear market for RSI. RSI tends to fluctuate between 40 and 90 in a bull market (uptrend) with the 40-50 zones acting as support. These ranges may vary depending on RSI parameters, strength of trend and volatility of the underlying security. Chart 9 shows 14-week RSI for SPY during the bull market from 2003 until 2007. RSI surged above 70 in late 2003 and then moved into its bull market range (40-90). There was one overshoot below 40 in July 2004, but RSI held the 40-50 zone at least five times from January 2005 until October 2007 (green arrows). In fact, notice that pullbacks to this zone provided low risk entry points to participate in the uptrend.

Chart 9 - RSI Trend ID

On the flip side, RSI tends to fluctuate between 10 and 60 in a bear market (downtrend) with the 50-60 zone acting as resistance. Chart 10 shows 14-day RSI for the US Dollar Index ($USD) during its 2009 downtrend. RSI moved to 30 in March to signal the start of a bear range. The 40-50 zone subsequently marked resistance until a breakout in December.

Chart 10 - RSI Trend ID

Positive-Negative Reversals

Andrew Cardwell developed positive and negative reversals for RSI, which are the opposite of bearish and bullish divergences. Cardwell's books are out of print, but he does offer seminars detailing these methods. Constance Brown credits Andrew Cardwell for her RSI enlightenment. Before discussing the reversal technique, it should be noted that Cardwell's interpretation of divergences differs from Wilder. Cardwell considered bearish divergences as bull market phenomenon. In other words, bearish divergences are more likely to form in uptrends. Similarly, bullish divergences are considered bear market phenomenon indicative of a downtrend.

A positive reversal forms when RSI forges a lower low and the security forms a higher low. This lower low is not at oversold levels, but usually somewhere between 30 and 50. Chart 11 shows MMM with a positive reversal forming in June 2009. MMM broke resistance a few weeks later and RSI moved above 70. Despite weaker momentum with a lower low in RSI, MMM held above its prior low and showed underlying strength. In essence, price action overruled momentum.

Chart 11 - RSI Reversals

A negative reversal is the opposite of a positive reversal. RSI forms a higher high, but the security forms a lower high. Again, the higher high is usually just below overbought levels in the 50-70 area. Chart 12 shows Starbucks (SBUX) forming a lower high as RSI forms a higher high. Even though RSI forged a new high and momentum was strong, the price action failed to confirm as lower high formed. This negative reversal foreshadowed the big support break in late June and sharp decline.

Chart 12 - RSI Reversals

Conclusions

RSI is a versatile momentum oscillator that has stood the test of time. Despite changes in volatility and the markets over the years, RSI remains as relevant now as it was in Wilder's days. While Wilder's original interpretations are useful to understanding the indicator, the work of Brown and Cardwell takes RSI interpretation to a new level. Adjusting to this level takes some rethinking on the part of the traditionally schooled chartists. Wilder considers overbought conditions ripe for a reversal, but overbought can also be a sign of strength. Bearish divergences still produce some good sell signals, but chartists must be careful in strong trends when bearish divergences are actually normal. Even though the concept of positive and negative reversals may seem to undermine Wilder's interpretation, the logic makes sense and Wilder would hardly dismiss the value of putting more emphasis on price action. Positive and negative reversals put price action of the underlying security first and the indicator second, which is the way it should be. Bearish and bullish divergences place the indicator first and price action second. By putting more emphasis on price action, the concept of positive and negative reversals challenges our thinking towards momentum oscillators.

Using with SharpCharts

RSI is available as an indicator for SharpCharts. Once selected, users can place the indicator above, below or behind the underlying price plot. Placing RSI directly on top of the price plot accentuates the movements relative to price action of the underlying security. Users can apply "advanced options" to smooth the indicator with a moving average or add a horizontal line to mark overbought or oversold levels.

Chart 13 - RSI SharpCharts

Chart 14 - RSI SharpCharts

Suggested Scans

In the traditional sense, RSI can be used to identify short-term oversold stocks in long-term uptrends. The 200-day simple moving averageis used to identify the long-term trend because it is a trend following indicator. A stock is in a long-term uptrend when above the 200-day and a long-term downtrend when below. RSI is used to identify overbought and oversold levels because it is a momentum oscillator. RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. 5-period RSI was chosen to insure an adequate supply of results. A longer RSI timeframe can be used to generate fewer results. Alternatively, overbought and oversold levels can be adjusted to 20 and 80 to tighten the scan.

RSI Oversold Scan (click here)

  • For the last market close:
  • United States Stocks with…
  • 20-day Simple Moving Average of Volume for today is greater than 40000
  • 60-day Simple Moving Average of Close for today is greater than 20
  • Daily Close for today is greater than 200-day SMA for today
  • Daily RSI(5) for today is less than or equal to 30

RSI Overbought Scan (click here)

  • For the last market close:
  • United States Stocks with…
  • 20-day Simple Moving Average of Volume for today is greater than 40000
  • 60-day Simple Moving Average of Close for today is greater than 20
  • Daily Close for today is less than 200-day SMA of Close for today
  • Daily RSI(5) for today is greater than or equal to 70

StochRSI Indicator

StochRSI Indicator

The Stochastic RSI combines two very popular technical analysis indicators, Stochastics and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Whereas Stochastics and RSI are based off of price, Stochastic RSI derives its values from the Relative Strength Index (RSI); it is basically the Stochastic indicator applied to the RSI indicator.

Developed by Welles Wilder, RSI is a momentum oscillator that compares the magnitude of gains to the magnitude of losses over a period of time. Developed by George Lane, Stochastics is a momentum oscillator that compares the closing level to the high/low range over a given period of time.

StochRSI is the Stochastics formula applied to RSI; that is, it's an indicator of RSI. StochRSI measures the value of RSI relative to its high/low range over a set number of periods. When RSI records a new low for the period, StochRSI will be at 0. When RSI records a new high for the period, StochRSI will be at 100. A reading of .20 would mean that the current RSI was 20% above the lowest level of the period, or 80% below the highest level. A reading of .80 would mean that the current RSI was 80% above the lowest level of the period, or 20% below the highest level.

Stochastic RSI (StochRsi) Signals

* Overbought and Oversold Crossovers: If an uptrend has been identified in the underlying security, then a buy signal would be generated when StochRSI advances from oversold (below .20) to above .20. Conversely, if a downtrend has been identified, then a sell signal would be generated when StochRSI declines from overbought (above .80) to below .80.
* Centerline Crossovers: Some traders look for moves above or below .50 (the centerline) to confirm signals and reduce whipsaws. A move from oversold to above .50 could constitute a buy signal and would remain in place until a decline below .50. Conversely, a move from overbought to below .50 would could act as a sell signal that would remain in place until an advance back above .50.
* Positive and Negative Divergences: A positive divergence followed by a confirming advance above .20 could constitute a buy signal and a negative divergence followed by a decline below .80 could act as a sell signal.
* Failures: Chande and Kroll also note that moves back past the trigger lines would indicate a failed signal. An advance back above .80 would indicate a failed signal and traders would be advised to close positions.
* Strong Trend: As with many oscillators, StochRSI can become overbought (or oversold) and remain overbought (or oversold) for an extended period. A move above .80 may imply overbought, but it can also indicate a strong up trend and remain above .80 for a prolonged period. Conversely, a quick move below .20 could indicate the beginning of a strong downtrend. Moves to 1 are considered very strong and moves to 0 very weak.

Stochastic RSI (StochRsi) Calculation

RS = total_gains_over_period / total_losses_over_period

RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + RS)

StochRSI = (recent_RSI - lowest_RSI_over_period) / (highest_RSI_over_period - lowest_RSI_over_period)

StochRSI measures the value of RSI relative to its high/low range over a set number of periods. The number of periods used to calculate StochRSI is transferred to RSI in the formula. For example, 14-day StochRSI would use the current value of 14-day RSI and the 14-day high-low range for 14-day RSI.

  • 14-day StochRSI equals 0 when RSI is at its lowest point for 14 days.
  • 14-day StochRSI equals 1 when RSI is at its highest point for 14 days.
  • 14-day StochRSI equals .5 when RSI is in the middle of its 14 day high-low range.
  • 14-day StochRSI equals .2 when RSI is near the low of its 14 day high-low range.
  • 14-day StochRSI equals .80 when RSI is near the high of its 14 day high-low range.

RSI - Spreadsheet 1

Click here for an Excel Spreadsheet showing the start of a StochRSI calculation.

Interpretation

It is important to remember that StochRSI is an indicator of an indicator, which makes it the second derivative of price. This means it is two steps (formulas) removed from the price of the underlying security. Price has undergone two changes to become StochRSI. Converting prices to RSI is one change. Converting RSI to the Stochastic Oscillator is the second change. This is why the end product (StochRSI) looks much different than the original (price).

StochRSI - Chart 1

StochRSI has characteristics similar to most bound momentum oscillators. First, it can be used to identify overbought or oversold conditions. A move above .80 is considered overbought, while a move below .20 is considered oversold. Second, it can be used to identify the short-term trend. As a bound oscillator, the centerline is at .50. StochRSI reflects an uptrend when consistently above .50 and a downtrend when consistently below .50. Because this indicator is quite volatile, some smooting with a moving average can help for short-term trend identification.

Overbought/Oversold

Trend identification is the key to successfully choosing between overbought and oversold levels. It is important to look for oversold conditions when the bigger trend is up and overbought conditions when the bigger trend is down. In other words, look for trades in the direction of the bigger trend. 14-day StochRSI would be considered a short-term indicator. Therefore, it is important to identify the medium-term trend when looking for overbought and oversold conditions.

Chart 2 shows Boeing in a medium-term uptrend with StochRSI(14) becoming oversold in January and February. First, the medium-term was deemed up because the 10-day SMA was above the 60-day SMA. With an uptrend in place, oversold conditions were preferred to overbought conditions. StochRSI became oversold at least four times from December to February. For what it is worth, 14-day RSI did not become oversold during this timeframe because it is less sensitive. Oversold is not the same as bullish though. It serves as a warning to watch for a bounce. A catalyst is still needed to solidify the low and signal an actual upturn. In this example, chartists could look for prices to break above the 10-day SMA or for StochRSI to break above .50, its centerline.

StochRSI - Chart 2

Chart 3 shows Flour Corp (FLR) within a downtrend and StochRSI registering overbought readings. First, the medium-term trend is down because the 10-day SMA is below the 60-day SMA. This means oversold readings are ignored and overbought readings become the focus. StochRSI moved above .80 in mid October and early November (red arrows). These overbought readings suggested that the oversold bounce could end soon. Confirmation came when StochRSI moved back below .50 (red dotted lines). Chartists could also look for the stock to break back below its 10-day SMA to signal a short-term down turn.

StochRSI - Chart 3

Trend ID

StochRSI is quite a volatile oscillator that frequently becomes overbought and oversold. For short-term trend identification, it can help to lengthen the calculation period and apply a short moving average to smooth the data. Momentum favors rising prices when the 10-day SMA of StochRSI is above .50 and falling prices when below .50. Chart 4 shows Chevron (CVX) with 20-day StochRSI and a 5-day SMA of the indicator. The 5-day SMA moved above .50 in mid February just after the stock gapped higher. The gap and moving average cross above .50 were short-term bullish signals. A falling flag/wedge formed in late February. Notice how CVX found support in the gap zone. The uptrend continued with a flag/wedge breakout and the stock advanced above 80. Even though StochRSI dipped below .50 in late March, the 5-day SMA held above .50 to keep the uptrend alive until late April. This short-term signal turned into a two month uptrend.

StochRSI - Chart 4

Unfortunately, not all signals are this picture perfect. There will be whipsaws, even when using a 5-day SMA with 20-day StochRSI. For example, a consolidation during a trend can cause the 5-day SMA of StochRSI to gyrate above/below the .50 line before continuing or reversing the trend. Chart 5 shows Yahoo! with 20-day StochRSI and its 5-day SMA for smoothing. The moving average broke above .50 in mid February to turn momentum bullish. This was followed by a resistance breakout for Yahoo! the first day of March. As the stock consolidated with a falling channel in late March, the 5-day SMA for StochRSI(20) dipped below .50 twice (red oval). These dips proved short-lived as the stock broke channel resistance and StochRSI moved above .80 to show strength. The trend did not end until the 5-day SMA moved below .50 AND Yahoo! gapped down.

StochRSI - Chart 5

Chart 6 shows Yahoo! with a bearish signal from StochRSI that did not take hold right away. The 5-day SMA for 20-day StochRSI moved below .50 to turn momentum bearish the second week of October. Yahoo! broke support for confirmation, but this break did not hold as the stock surged to 18 a few days later. The immediate recovery and bounce back above 17 formed a bear trap. Even though Yahoo! surged, the 5-day SMA for StochRSI remained below .50 and momentum did not confirm. The subsequent gap above 17.50 turned out to be an exhaustion gap as Yahoo! failed at resistance (18), filled the gap, broke support again and moved sharply lower into November. Talk about volatility.

StochRSI - Chart 6

Conclusion

StochRSI is like RSI on steroids. RSI produces relatively fewer signals and StochRSI dramatically increases the signal count. There will be more overbought/oversold readings, more centerline crosses, more good signals and more bad signals. Speed comes at a price. This means it is important to use StochRSI with other aspects of technical analysis for confirmation. The examples above use gaps, support/resistance breaks and price patterns to confirm StochRSI signals. Chartists can also employ other complementary indicators, such as On Balance Volume (OBV) or the Accumulation Distribution Line. These volume based indicators do not overlap with momentum oscillators. Chartists should also experiment with various settings and learn the nuances of StochRSI before using it in the real world.

Using with SharpCharts

The StochRSI indicator can be charted as an indicator using the SharpCharts tool. The "parameters" value specifies the number of periods used in calculation (default is 14). The indicator can be set above, below or behind the underlying price plot. A moving average can be applied by clicking the advanced options arrow (green) and adding an overlay. Click here to see a live example of StochRSI.

StochRSI - SharpCharts

Suggested Scans

Oversold StochRSI in medium-term uptrend: This scan starts with stocks that have an average price of $10 or greater over the last three months and average volume greater than 40,000. The first filter selects securities within a medium-term uptrend by looking for those where the 10-day SMA is greater than the 60-day SMA. The screen then selects stocks that are short-term oversold by looking for those trading below their 10-day SMA and with StochRSI(14) below .10. This scan often returns many stocks and further refinement may be needed.

Overbought StochRSI within a medium-term downtrend: This scan starts with stocks that have an average price of $10 or greater over the last three months and average volume greater than 40,000. The first filter selects securities within a medium-term downtrend by looking for those where the 10-day SMA is less than the 60-day SMA. The screen then selects stocks that are short-term overbought by looking for those trading above their 10-day SMA and with StochRSI(14) above .90. This scan often returns many stocks and further refinement may be needed.

Friday, October 15, 2010

(সুরা জ্বিন: ১-৭) : জাহেলী যুগে আরবরা জনহীন প্রান্তরে উচ্চস্বরে বলতো, "আমরা এ প্রান্তরের অধিপতি 'জিনের' আশ্রয় প্রার্থনা করছি"

১) হে নবী ,বল, আমার কাছে অহী পাঠানো হয়েছে যে, জিনদের একটি দল মনোযোগ দিয়ে শুনেছে৷ ১ তারপর (ফিরে গিয়ে নিজ জাতির লোকদেরকে ) বলেছেঃ"আমরা এক বিস্ময়কর "কুরআন"শুনেছি ২

১ . এ থেকে জানা যায় যে, রসূলুল্লাহ সাল্লাল্লাহু আলাইহি ওয়া সাল্লাম সে সময় জিনদের দেখতে পাচ্ছিলেন না এবং তারা যে কুরাআন শুনছে একথাও তাঁর জানা ছিল না৷ পরবর্তী সময়ে আল্লাহ তাআলা তাঁকে অহীর মাধ্যমে এ ঘটনা জানিয়ে দিয়েছেন৷ এ ঘটনাটি বর্ণনা প্রসংগে হযরত আবদুল্লাহ ইবনে আব্বাস স্পস্টভাবে বলেছেন যে, সে সময় রসূলুল্লাহ সাল্লাল্লাহু আলাইহি ওয়া সাল্লাম জিনদের উদ্দেশ্যে কুরআন পাঠ করনেনি এবং তিনি তাদের দেখেনওনি৷" (মুসলিম ,তিরমিযী, মুসনাদে আহমাদ, ইবনে জারীর)

২ . মূল আয়াতে -------(কুরআনান আজাবান)শব্দ ব্যবহৃত হয়েছে৷"কুরআন" মানে পড়ার মত জিনিস৷ জিনেরা সম্ভবত শব্দটি এ অর্থেই ব্যবহার করেছিল৷ কারণ তখন তারা প্রথম বারের মত এ বাণীর সাথে পরিচিত হয়েছিল৷ সে সময় হয়তো তাদের জানা ছিল না যে, যে জিনিস তারা শুনছে তার নামই কোরআন৷ ------(আজাবা)আধিক্য অর্থ নির্দেশক একটি শব্দ৷ আরবী ভাষায় শব্দটি ব্যবহৃত হয় অত্যাধিক বিস্ময়কর ব্যাপার বুঝাতে ৷ সুতরাং জিনদের উক্তির অর্থ হলো, আমরা এমন একটি বাণী শুনে এসেছি যা ভাষাগত উৎকর্ষতা ও বিষয়বস্তু অতুলনীয়৷

এ থেকে জানা যায় যে, জিনরা শুধু মানুষের কথা শুনতে পারে তাই নয়, তারা মানুষের ভাষাও ভালভাবে বুঝতে পারে৷ তবে এটা জরুরী নয় যে, সব জিন মানুষের সব ভাষাই জানবে বা বুঝবে৷ সম্ভবত তাদের যে গোষ্ঠি পৃথিবীর যে এলাকায় বসবাস করে তারা সে এলাকার মানুষের ভাষা জানে৷তবে কুরআনের এ বক্তব্য থেকে একথা স্পষ্ট বুঝা যায় যে, ঐ সময় যেসব জিন কুরাআন শুনেছিল তারা আরবী ভাষায় এত দক্ষ ছিল যে, তারা এ বাণীর অতুলনীয় ভাষাগত উৎকর্ষ পর্যন্ত উপলদ্ধি করতে সক্ষম হয়েছিল এবং এর উচ্চমানের বিষয়বস্তু ও ভালভাবে বুঝতে পেরেছিল৷

২) যা সত্য ও সঠিক পথের নির্দেশনা দেয় তাই আমরা তার ওপর ঈমান এনেছি এবং আমরা আর কখনো আমাদের রবের সাথে কাউকে শরীক করবো না৷"

৩) আর "আমাদের রবের মর্যাদা অতীব সমুচ্চ ৷ তিনি কাউকে স্ত্রী কিংবা সন্তান হিসেবে গ্রহণ করেননি৷" ৩

৩ . এখান থেকে দুটি বিষয় জানা গেল৷ এ জিনগুলো হয় ঈসায়ী বা খৃষ্ট ধর্মের অনুসারী ছিল অথবা অন্য এমন কোন ধর্মের অনুসারী ছিল যে ধর্মে মহান আল্লাহর স্ত্রী ও ছেলেমেয়ে বলে বিশ্বাস করা হতো ৷ দুটি, সে সময় রসূলুল্লাহ সাল্লাল্লাহ আলাইহি ওয়া সাল্লাম নামাযের মধ্যে পবিত্র কুরআনের এমন কোন অংশ তিলাওয়াত করছিলেন যা শুনে তাদের কাছে নিজেদের আকীদার ভ্রান্তি ধরা পড়েছিল৷ এবং তারা বুঝতে পেরেছিল যে, মহান আল্লাহর সমুন্নত ও অতি মর্যাদাবান সত্তার সাথে স্ত্রী ও ছেলেমেয়ে সম্পর্কিতও করা চরম অজ্ঞতা ও ঔদ্ধত্যপূর্ণ আচরণ৷

৪) আর "আমাদের নির্বোধ লোকেরা ৪ আল্লাহ সম্পর্কে সত্য ও ন্যায়ের পরিপন্থী অনেক কথাবার্তা বলে আসছে৷"

৪ . মূল আয়াতে --------(ছাফিহুনা)শব্দ ব্যবহৃত হয়েছে৷ এ শব্দটি এক ব্যক্তির জন্যও ব্যবহৃত হতে পারে আবার অনেক লোক বা দলের জন্যও ব্যবহৃত হতে পারে৷ যদি শব্দটি একজন অজ্ঞ বা মূর্খ লোক অর্থে গ্রহণ করা হয় তাহলে তার মানে হবে ইবলীস৷ আর যদি অনেক লোক বা দলের অর্থে গ্রহণ করা হয় তাহলে অর্থ হবে জিনদের মধ্য থেকে অনেক নির্বোধ ও বুদ্ধি -বিবেকহীন লোক এ রকম কথা বলতো৷

৫) আর "আমরা মনে করেছিলাম যে, মানুষ এবং জিন আল্লাহর সম্বন্ধে কখনো মিথ্যা বলতে পারে না৷" ৫

৫ . অর্থাৎ তাদের ভ্রান্ত কথাবার্তা দ্বারা আমাদের বিভ্রান্ত হওয়ার কারণ হলো, আমরা কোন সময় চিন্তাও করতে পারিনি যে, মানুষ কিংবা জিন আল্লাহ সম্পর্কে মিথ্যা বলার দুঃসাহসও করতে পারে কিন্তু এখন এ কুরআন শুনে আমরা জানতে পেরেছি যে, প্রকৃত পক্ষে তারা ছিল মিথ্যাবাদী৷

৬) আর "মানুষের মধ্য থেকে কিছু লোক জিনদের কিছু লোকের কাছে আশ্রয় প্রার্থনা করতো৷ এভাবে তারা জিনদের অহংকার আরো বাড়িয়ে দিয়েছে৷"৬

৬ . ইবনে আব্বাস বলেনঃ জাহেলী যুগে আরবরা যখন কোন জনহীন প্রান্তরে রাত্রি যাপন করতো তখন উচ্চস্বরে বলতো, "আমরা এ প্রান্তরের অধিপতি জিনের আশ্রয় প্রার্থনা করছি৷"জাহেলী যুগের অন্যান্য বর্ণনাতেও এ বিষয়টির বহুল উল্লেখ দেখা যায়৷ উদাহরণ স্বরূপ , কোন জায়গায় পানি এবং ঘাস ফুরিয়ে গেলে মুরুচারী যাযাবর বেদুঈনরা তাদের একজন লোককে এমন আরেকটি জায়গা খুঁজে বের করতে পাঠাতো যেখানে পানি এবং ঘাস পাওয়া যেতে পারে৷ অতপর উক্ত ব্যক্তির নির্দেশনা মুতাবিক এসব লোক নতুন জায়গায় পৌছলে সেখানে অবস্থান নেয়ার আগে চিৎকার করে বলতোঃ আমরা এ প্রান্তরের মালিকের আশ্রয় প্রার্থনা করছি, যাতে আমরা এখনে সব রকম বিপদ থেকে নিরাপদে থাকতে পারি৷ " তাদের বিশ্বাস ছিল , প্রত্যেক জনমনবহীন জায়গা কোন না কোন জিনের দখলে আছে৷ তার আশ্রয় প্রার্থনা ছাড়াই কেউ যদি সেখানে অবস্থান করে তাহলে সে জিন হয় নিজেই তাদের উত্যক্ত করে কিংবা অন্য জিনদের উত্যক্ত করার জন্য লেলিয়ে দেয়৷ ঈমান আনয়নকারী এ জিনরা এ বিষয়টির প্রতিই ইংগিত করেছে৷ তাদের কথার অর্থ হলো এ পৃথিবীর খলিফা বা প্রতিনিধি মানুষ৷ তারাই যখন উল্টা আমাদের ভয় করতে শুরু করেছে এবং আল্লাহকে বাদ দিয়ে আমাদের আশ্রয় প্রার্থনা করতে শুরু করেছে তখন আমাদের জাতির লোকদের মস্তিষ্ক বিকৃতি আরো বৃদ্ধি পেয়েছে৷ তাদের গর্ব, অহংকার এবং কুফরী ও জুলুম অত্যাচারের মাত্রা অত্যাধিক বেড়ে গিয়েছে এবং গোমরাহীর ক্ষেত্রে তারা আরো বেপরোয়া হয়ে গিয়েছে৷

৭) আর "তোমরা যেমন ধারণা পোষণ করতে মানুষেরাও ঠিক তেমনি ধারণা পোষণ করেছিল যে, আল্লাহ কাউকে রসূল বানিয়ে পাঠাবেন না৷" ৭

৮ . এ আয়াতাংশের দুটি অর্থ হতে পারে৷ একটি আমরা যা অনুবাদ করেছি৷ অপরটি হলো,"মৃত্যুর পর আল্লাহ তা"আলা কাউকে আর জীবিত করে উঠাবেন না৷" যেহেতু কথাটি ব্যাপক অর্থবোধক তাই তার এ অর্থও গ্রহণ করা যেতে পারে যে মানুষের মত জিনদের মধ্যে একদল আখেরাতকে অস্বীকার করতো৷ কিন্তু পরবর্তী বিষয়ের সাথে সামঞ্জস্যের দিক থেকে প্রথম অর্থটিই অধিক অগ্রাধিকার পাওয়ার যোগ্য৷ কারণ, পরবর্তী আয়াতসমূহে এ বিষয়টির ঊল্লেখ আছে যে,ঈমান আনয়নকারী এসব জিন তাদের কওমকে বলছে, আল্লাহ আর কোন রসূল পাঠাবেন না ৷ তোমাদের এ ধারণা ভ্রান্ত প্রমাণিত হয়েছে৷ আমাদের জন্য আসমানের দারজা বন্ধ করার কারণ হলো আল্লাহ একজন রসল পাঠিয়েছেন৷

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Surah Al-Araaf (Ayat 40-41)

[7]. Surah Al-Araaf [The Heights]

Ayat 40. Verily, those who belie Our Ayat (proofs, evidences, verses, lessons, signs, revelations, etc.) and treat them with arrogance, for them the gates of heaven will not be opened, and they will not enter Paradise until the camel goes through the eye of the needle (which is impossible). Thus do We recompense the Mujrimun (criminals, polytheists, sinners, etc.).
Ayat 41. Theirs will be a bed of Hell (Fire), and over them coverings (of Hell-fire). Thus do We recompense the Zalimun (polytheists and wrong­doers, etc.).

Hazrat Numan bin Bashir (May Allah be pleased with them) reported: Messenger of Allah [SAWW] (PBUH) said, "The least tortured man on the Day of Resurrection is one underneath whose feet will be placed two live coal, and his brain will be boiling, and he would think that he is the most tortured, while he is the least tortured",

[Al-Bukhari and Muslim].

Lesson : as mentioned above in Surah Al-Araaf Ayat 41. Theirs will be a bed of Hell (Fire), and over them coverings (of Hell-fire). According to the narration in Muslim, the straps of shoes to be worn by the inhabitants of Hell would be of fire which will make their brains boil like a cooker placed on oven.